§ 17. A Shortcut to the Arbitrators’ Mind: I. Introduction

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Sayfa 117

§ 17. A Shortcut to the Arbitrators’ Mind*…

Paolo Marzolini**

“In my youthful, scornful way, I recognized four kinds of judgments; first the cogitative, of and by reflection and logomancy; second, aleatory, of and by the dice; third, intuitive, of and by feeling or ‘hunching’; and fourth, asinine, of and by an ass; and in that same youthful, scornful way I regarded the last three as only variants of each other, the results of processes all alien to good judges”.(1)…

Psychologists postulate that humans tend to use two types of reasoning: one intuitive and another deliberative.(8) While acting on intuition Sayfa 119 allows us to react quickly and avoid wasting energy, automatisms come at a price: being prone to bias.(9) Biases are generally defined as “unconscious psychological influences,”(10) “mental shortcuts”,(11) or situations “in which an individual’s reasoning systematically and consistently departs from a certain standard of reasoning”.(12) Authors subdivide these biases into the following categories: (i) informational biases, (ii) cognitive biases or heuristics, and (iii) attitudinal biases.(13) Sayfa 120The tests set out below have been referred to many times in other studies; they provide a good illustration of the excessive reliance we tend to place on intuition.(14)Sayfa 121(i) If the total cost for a ball and a bat is USD 1.10 and we know that the bat costs ‎USD 1 more than the ball, how much does the ball cost?

II. Confirmation Bias (Cognitive Illusion No. 1)

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