“In my youthful, scornful way, I recognized four kinds of judgments; first the cogitative, of and by reflection and logomancy; second, aleatory, of and by the dice; third, intuitive, of and by feeling or ‘hunching’; and fourth, asinine, of and by an ass; and in that same youthful, scornful way I regarded the last three as only variants of each other, the results of processes all alien to good judges”.(1)…
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On İki Levha Yayıncılık
Release date: February 2022
Pages:: 117 - 126
Paolo Marzolini
Editor:Şeref Can Arat, Ziya Akıncı, Umut Tuga
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§ 17. A Shortcut to the Arbitrators’ Mind*…
Paolo Marzolini**
Very few would disagree with the general proposition that wise counsel should improve… This article is based, on the one hand, on the author’s personal experience as counsel… Arguably, insight into how the arbitrators’ mind operates may also assist in finding… Psychologists postulate that humans tend to use two types of reasoning: one intuitive and another deliberative.(8) While acting on intuition Sayfa 119 allows us to react quickly and avoid wasting energy, automatisms come at a price: being prone to bias.(9) Biases are generally defined as “unconscious psychological influences,”(10) “mental shortcuts”,(11) or situations “in which an individual’s reasoning systematically and consistently departs from a certain standard of reasoning”.(12) Authors subdivide these biases into the following categories: (i) informational biases, (ii) cognitive biases or heuristics, and (iii) attitudinal biases.(13) Sayfa 120The tests set out below have been referred to many times in other studies; they provide a good illustration of the excessive reliance we tend to place on intuition.(14)Sayfa 121(i) If the total cost for a ball and a bat is USD 1.10 and we know that the bat costs USD 1 more than the ball, how much does the ball cost? (ii) If five machines produce five widgets in five minutes, how long will it take… (iii) There is a lake with a patch of lily pads on it. Every day, this patch doubles… While the questions mentioned above are not hard to answer upon reflection, the first,… In principle, bias is not a reasoning flaw attributable only to certain individuals.… Arbitrators are human beings and, as such, they are prone to errors and emotions.… II. THE PSYCHOLOGY OF ARBITRATORS AND THE APPROACH TO THE CASE… Waites and Lawrence report on scientific studies into arbitrators’ decision-making.… (i) firstly, “the individual arbitrator evaluates the facts, arguments, and technical evidence and constructs a mental summary in the form of a narrative story… (ii) secondly, “the arbitrator comprehends the questions to be answered at the end of the arbitration concerning the legal decision alternatives that are available as decision categories… (iii) thirdly, “the arbitrator attempts to find a match between his or her story of the case and a decision category in order to classify the story in the category it best fits… This model is referred to by social scientists as an “explanation-based model” or… One paramount question follows from this premise: when do arbitrators start creating… Arguably, this process begins as soon as the arbitrators start to learn about the… There is at least one study which reaches the conclusion that some arbitrators and…I. Introduction